France will not refuse to hold the FRUKUS 2008 international naval exercises, in which Russia will take part, representatives of the Russian Pacific Fleet information service told Interfax on Thursday. At the request of the French Navy, they added, a ship from the Pacific Fleet and the French frigate Vendemiaire will hold separate exercises in the Sea of Japan

On Tuesday in the late evening, information agencies, citing unnamed high-placed Pentagon representatives, reported that the United States was refusing to hold the FRUKUS 2008 exercises, planned for August 15-23, in connection with events in South Ossetia. The Pacific Ocean Fleet responded that it had received no official notification of the exercises’ cancellation.

FRUKUS is a joint naval exercise held by Russia, France, the U.S. and Great Britain in the Sea of Japan and Port of Vladivostok.


Europe Split up over Georgia

Cordon sanitaire may appear near Russia’s border

Yesterday an emergency meeting of EU foreign ministers was held in Brussels. The forum, which was intended to work out a single approach to the war in Georgia, ended up with nothing: The ministers only pushed for sending EU monitors in South Ossetia. The key outcome of the meeting was that the fissure between the EU’s old and new members became even more evident. The latter got far more critical of Russia, which can lead to forming a sort of cordon sanitaire made up by the countries showing dislike toward Moscow

The split

According to the information Kommersant got from western diplomatic sources, the EU’s several members (mainly those from Eastern Europe) demanded to convene an emergency summit shortly after the war in Georgia began. They made no secret of their main goal: “condemning Russia’s aggression”. However, France, which now chairs the EU, didn’t rush to do it – the meeting was planned for August 13, at the Foreign Ministers level only. It’s not that France doesn’t share the radicalism of those from Eastern Europe. Rather, Paris understands that the EU’s censuring Russia will put an end to their cooperation. And France least wants this to happen during its chairmanship. Besides, after a series of telephone conversations with the Russian opposite number Dmitry Medvedev France’s President saw a radical chance to win the laurels of the major Caucasian mediator.

That’s why the meeting was held after Russia called a halt to the fighting, which boded well for those trying to avert a confrontation with Moscow. For all that, the hawks were very determined. No sooner had he arrived in Brussels than Lithuania’s Foreign Minister Petras Vaitiekūnas said about the necessity “to punish Russia for the inappropriate use of force”. He was supported by his opposite numbers from the rest of the Baltic states as well as Poland. David Miliband, Chief of the British Foreign Office, took a similar stance.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who chaired yesterday’s meeting, was supported by his Finnish opposite number Alexander Stubb, who had been with the mediatory mission in Moscow and Tbilisi. “The game of mutual accusations and tough rhetoric will start later,” he said. “When discussing peace-keeping, the EU must play the key role.”

However, the EU’s “key role” is likely to boil down to sending monitors, rather than peace-keepers, to South Ossetia. The main argument of Bernard Kouchner was, “I think Russia will agree to it.”

This said, the forum, which was intended to work out a single approach to the war in Georgia, ended up with nothing. What’s more, the Russia-Georgian military conflict only fostered the disputes within the EU, splitting it into two camps. This split is even more serious than the one of 2003 as the old and new Europeans disagreed over the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

However, Russia shouldn’t celebrate its victory yet. Yesterday David Miliband stated that the EU will articulate its approach toward the relations with Russia on September 6-7 during the next summit of the EU Foreign Ministers in France. The ministers will have to decide whether to continue the negotiations with Russia about the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement. But it is not the thing that should plague Moscow most.

The cordon

The war in Georgia is sure to encourage the politicians in Eastern Europe that see an imminent threat to their countries in Russia’s new policy. In this connection experts mention a possibility of forming a kind of cordon sanitaire made up by the countries showing dislike toward Moscow – from Estonia to Georgia.

The trend got obvious as yesterday the leaders of Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine paid a brief visit to Georgia. They arrived in Tbilisi after Russia called a halt to the fighting, so, their mission could hardly be called peace-keeping.

The leaders of the five states said that their goal was “Giving support to Georgia and defending its right to independence”. In fact, Russia’s five neighbors set off for Georgia to protect themselves. “Today Georgia is attacked, tomorrow Ukraine can find itself in the same situation, and then it may come to Poland,” Polish President Lech Kaczyński laid it on thick.

Apparently, the leaders of the five states decided to persuade the West and the USA first of all to take them under the secure military and political umbrella. This idea has been partly realized. Although the government of Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk slightly criticized the blitz-visit of Lech Kaczyński, it stated that the USA is now eager to provide Warsaw with “real security guarantees” in exchange for deploying AMD elements on the territory of Poland. Here deploying American Patriot missiles and streamlining the Polish air defense are meant. Yesterday U.S. negotiators arrived in Warsaw, which can be regarded the first palpable international outcome of the Georgian war.

Another sign of forming a sort of cordon sanitaire at Russia’s borders is Ukraine’s more aggressive stance toward its eastern neighbor. Not only did President Yushchenko lash out Moscow, on his return from Tbilisi he signed a decree on unilateral regulation of admitting Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ships to the city of Sevastopol. From this time on Russia’s ships will have to get a permit with Ukraine’s authorities to be able to return to Sevastopol. Interestingly, an application must be sent ten days before the planned maneuver. This decree virtually brings to naught Russia’s ability to use its Black Sea Fleet in situations similar to that in Georgia.

It’s no surprise that the Russian Foreign Ministry immediately called Mr Yushchenko’s decree “politically motivated amateur dramatics” pointing out that it “violates the base agreements between Moscow and Kiev on the status and terms of the stay of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine of 1997”. If so, the President of Ukraine deliberately breaks these agreements. Victor Chumak, expert with Kiev’s International Center for Political Studies, explained the possible incentives of Victor Yushchenko, “Till Ukraine becomes NATO member, Russia will be able to do whatever: history may repeat itself in the Crimea. Perhaps not today or tomorrow, rather, in two or three years.”

Supposedly, the only breach in a potential cordon round Russia is Belarus, which is member of the Union of Russia and Belarus. Nevertheless, even Minsk didn’t rush to show its solidarity with Moscow. That’s why Russia’s Ambassador Alexander Surikov reproached the Belarusian authorities. “We don’t understand why the government of Belarus has been blissfully silent. It’s necessary to express a more distinctive stance towards matters like this, even more so it concerns the allies,” the Ambassador said indignantly.

On the same day Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko ordered that the Foreign Minister should “make steps to improve the relations with the European Union and the USA”.

by Gennady Sysoyev

Source > Kommersant - Russia's Daily Online | Aug. 14, 2008

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