Israel's Attack on Iran Questioned
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A new study casts serious doubt on Israel's ability to destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities — and warns of the repercussions of an Israeli attack.

The study is detailed in a 114-page paper by two senior scholars at Washington's Center for Strategic & International Studies: Anthony Cordesman, former national security adviser to Sen. John McCain, and Abdullah Toukan, who was an adviser to the late King Hussein of Jordan.

"Their conclusion: Chances of a strong success — defined by how much of Iran's uranium enrichment program is destroyed or the number of years the attack delays Iran's acquisition of material sufficient to build a nuclear bomb — seem dubious," the Jewish publication Forward reports, "while the risks of the undertaking and its harsh military and destabilizing geopolitical consequences seem overwhelming."

A recent poll by Tel Aviv University's Center for Iranian Studies found that half of all Israelis favor an immediate Israeli attack on Iran. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said in a meeting with members of his Likud Party, discussing who will eliminate Iran's threat to Israel: "It is us or no one."

But the study by Cordesman and Toukan points out a number of difficulties Israel would face:

# Limited aerial resources would allow Israel to target only three sites among Iran's numerous nuclear development centers.

# The attacks would require pinpoint accuracy to penetrate thick reinforced concrete and impact underground facilities.

# Iran's air defenses, possibly bolstered by a sophisticated Russian anti-aircraft system, could down 20 percent to 30 percent of Israel's attack aircraft.

# Even a successful attack on the three sites could prove futile if Iran maintains secret facilities for uranium enrichment, as is suspected.

As for the repercussions of an Israeli attack, Iran and its Shiite allies in neighboring countries would launch retaliatory attacks against Israel, American military forces in Iraq, and Western interests in the region, the authors warn.

These attacks would include ballistic missiles — including some with chemical, biological and radiological warheads — targeting "Tel Aviv, Israeli military and civilian centers, and Israeli suspected nuclear weapons sites," the authors note, adding that Israeli's air defenses would not be able to cope with the tens of thousands of missiles.

Forward concludes, "Such a heavy military and strategic price, weighed against the real possibility that an Israeli strike will not significantly set back Iran's nuclear abilities, make an Israeli attack unlikely."

Source >  Newsmax | May 31

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